According to data reported by Member States of the European Union (EU) under the EU Governance Regulation (EU) 2018/19991 , in 2022 the agricultural sector is estimated to have emitted 366 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), accounting for 11% of the estimated EU’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with two thirds emitted by the livestock sector (enteric fermentation and manure management)2 . Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector activities are estimated to have removed 236 million tonnes net of CO2e from the atmosphere in 2022, equal to 7% of the EU’s annual estimated GHG emissions. Cropland and grassland are sources of LULUCF emissions at EU level, estimated at 41 million tonnes of CO2e, accounting for 1.2% of EU’s annual estimated GHG emissions. However, the Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2021 and inventory report 20233 points to important uncertainties in the estimation of GHG emissions at EU level. In addition, it is not clear the extent to which the granularity of the estimation is considering the implementation of practices and investments at farm level. So, there is a need to further analyse and better quantify the contribution of certain agricultural practices to climate mitigation. To enhance the contribution of the EU farming sector to the EU climate objectives, multiple Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plan (CSP) instruments were designed to increase the carbon sinks and to reduce emission sources. In addition, in the CSPs, 32% of the total Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) funding is aimed to be devoted to delivering benefits for the climate, water, soil, air, biodiversity, animal welfare, and encouraging practices beyond the mandatory conditionality. This study examines the CSPs drawn up as part of the CAP 2023-2027 programming, and it analyses their potential contribution to reducing GHG emissions, enhancing carbon removals, and conserving existing carbon stocks. It establishes, for the first time, the link between CSP planned instruments and their mitigation potential at EU level, representing a starting point for the development of a further refined methodology using Member State data and the improvement in their GHG emissions and removals inventories. The study does not account for the contribution of other policies and measures implemented in Member States beyond the CSPs and their mitigation potential.
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