The European Union’s Farm to Fork Strategy target of a 25% organic share of agricultural land by 2030 is ambitious given that organically farmed land was just under 10% in 2020, but it is a clear statement of the value placed on the environmental, social and economic benefits that organic farming can deliver. Much has been written about the potential benefits in descriptive terms, but just how big could they be? This study seeks to put numbers on the possible benefits if the 25% target can be achieved. Using published Eurostat statistical data for the EU 27 Member States, Switzerland, Norway and the United Kingdom, we have estimated various production and environmental outcomes for the actual organic area in 2020 and three scenarios for 2030: a) linear trend growth continuing as in 2016-2020, b) more rapid growth at 1.75 times the linear trend rate to deliver 25%, and c) equal 25% shares across all sectors. Similar calculations have been undertaken for different target shares in individual countries, reflecting their current starting points, but still delivering in combination the overall 25% target at EU27 level. The analysis shows that achieving the 25% organic share of land area target in the EU could deliver: 40 million hectares (Mha) of land managed organically; Up to 84 million tonnes (Mt) of organic crops; 2.7 million tonnes (Mt) less synthetic nitrogen fertiliser; 90-95% reduction in pesticide use on organic land; Up to 15 million livestock units (MLU) produced organically; Antimicrobial and anthelmintic use declining at least in proportion to livestock numbers; Up to 68 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents (Mt CO2e) reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; Up to 450 thousand tonnes (kt) reduction in ammonia (NH3) emissions; 30% increase in biodiversity on organic cropland.
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